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2009 Real Estate Market Predicted at Real Estate Today Conference

Housing Market Predictions at Real Estate Today Conference

Web Collins, Executive Vice President of CBRE in New England and CBRE’s top appraiser worldwide, Loren Keim, Century 21 broker and best selling author, and Dr. Stephen Thode, director of the Goodman Center for Real Estate Studies were among the key speakers at the event.

Real estate broker and author, Loren Keim, gave his annual real estate market predictions Monday at the Real Estate Today conference held at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.  Keim outlined the decline of the market from 2006 to 2009 and pointed out that the number of homes sold in much of the country hasn’t been this low since 1997, more than 10 years ago.

There is a bright spot, however.  This year, he predicted, will mark the end of the decline.  The number of homes sold in the first quarter of 2009 was significantly lower than the first quarter of 2008.  Keim believes that the number of home sales in 2009 will finish the year 25% to 35% lower than 2008, but that home prices will stabilize.

Keim, the author of the best selling book “How to Sell Your Home in Any Market” and president of Century 21 Keim, explained: “Although unemployment will continue to rise and credit will continue to tighten, there is a rubber band effect in the market.  Home prices are significantly down, interest rates are at all time record lows, and the affordability index is the highest its been in years meaning more people again qualify to buy the average home in the area.”

“When you add to these trends the fact that buyers who purchase a first time home in the next few months can get a check for up to $8000 from the government and can buy a home for a lower monthly payment than renting, it adds up to a formula for a renewed interest in the real estate market.”

When pressed on whether the real estate market will recover quickly, Keim responded “It will be a slow and steady process.  I expect that we’ll see the bottom of the residential market locally before Fall, but I don’t expect sales to boom for several years.  Prices will also take some time to return because the real estate market is a supply and demand market.  There’s a lot of inventory that needs to be absorbed before prices can significantly rise.  However, with interest rates this low, and the possibility of them rising based on the long term bond market, now is the time to take advantage of first time deals.”

Dr. Stephen Thode, director of the Goodman Center for Real Estate Studies at Lehigh University, also examined the market.  Dr. Thode showed examples of price declines across the country.  In Salinas, California, one home had sold in the peak of the market for $628,000.  That same home is now valued at only $275,000.  Dr. Thode also illustrated how most foreclosures are not subprime loans, but rather borrowers who took out equity lines of credit, second mortgages and adjustable rate mortgages.

Thode has determined that overbuilding continues to be a problem in some markets, “but builders are continuing to slowly shed inventory which will ultimately help rebalance the market.”

Web Collins, Executive Vice President of CBRE in New England and CBRE’s top appraiser worldwide, examined the effects of the economic collapse and the credit crunch.  “Unless we can unlock credit, we will continue to slip into recession.  Debt will be frozen.”

To punctuate his point, Collins used an example of an office building in the Boston marketplace that appraised at 50 million dollars.  The owner, with impeccable credit and credentials, applied at 31 lenders for a loan of only 25 million and was turned down by all of them.  Whether or not the residential market begins to recover, commercial sales will be hampered by a lack of available financing.

Other presentations were done by Sandra Holsonback, Director of the Small Business Development Center, Kerry Wrobel, President of LVIP, and Peter Snik, Vice President of Lafayette Ambassador Bank.

 

About the Author

Don Blose
Gideon Publications

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