Postwar Conv

Posted in Uncategorized on 07/11/2009 08:28 pm by admin

Postwar Conv

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As the unemployment rate continues to climb during the current recession, we frequently hear and read in the financial news the number of jobs lost is a lagging indicator, destined to continue rising after the official end of the recession. Historically, however, job losses are more of a coincident, and not lagging, economic indicator.

In seven of the last ten recessions the economy actually started creating jobs at, or near, the end of the contraction. Only in the last two economic downturns did we see a significant deterioration in the employment situation after the recession ended and after the recession of December 1969 - December 1970 the net number of jobs basically drifted sideways for about a year before significantly improving.

A close look at the post-war recessions shows just how atypical the last two recessions were regarding jobs.

Consider the first recession after World War II: at the end of the November 1948 - October 1949 downturn the unemployment rate was 7.9%. This was the high of the business cycle and it began a downward trend in December, falling to 2.5% in May and June of 1953.

As the July 1953 to June 1954 recession came to a close, the rate was 5.6 percent. It did continue to rise for the next three months, peaking at 6.1% in September of 1954, but the one half percent increase, and the fact that net job losses increased for only three months after the recession ended, leaves the increase relatively statistically insignificant.

When the August 1957 - May 1958 recession ended the rate hit 7.4%. It fell to 7.3 percent in June, rose to 7.5% in July1958, then proceeded to decline until February 1960 when it bottomed at 4.8%.

The April 1960 - March 1961 recession was fairly typical: as the downturn ended and the economy started to expand, the percentage of the labor force which lacked work stood at 6.9%. The rate did continue to rise until May of 1961, but it peaked in May at 7.1% which was barely changed from the March number. After the May high it fell to 3.4% in September 1968 where it remained until May of '69.

During the December 1969 - December 1970 contraction the unemployment rate had climbed to 6.1 percent as the recession came to a close. While the economy didn't start to produce jobs immediately after the recession ended, the job situation didn't deteriorate either: the rate stayed between 5.8 and 6.1 percent until December of 1971, then it started its downward spiral until it bottomed in October of 1973 at 4.6 percent.

As the November 1973 - April 1975 recession came to an end the unemployment rate was 8.8%. It inched up to 9 percent in May, then it headed down, eventually bottoming in May of 1979 at 5.59%.

The short downturn of January to August of 1980 saw the rate peaking at 7.8% in July, one month before the recession officially ended. The second half of the double dip recession, from July 1981 to December 1982, saw the postwar high peak of 10.8 percent, which it hit in November and December of 1982. But as the recession ended in December the number of jobs increased and the rate dropped to a low of 5.2% during June 1990.

However, the recession of July 1990 - April 1991 saw a significant change from the previous post- war contractions. During the official recession, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the unemployment rate peaked at 6.8 percent in March of 1991. It then continued its uptrend until it reached its ultimate high of 7.8 in June of 1992, 14 months after the end of the recession.

The March to December 2001 downturn saw a relatively small decrease in the number of jobs after the recession ended but the drop was significant because of the length of time after the end of the recession before the job losses peaked. During the recession the unemployment rate hit a high of 5.7% in December. It continued to climb until June of 2003 when it ultimately peaked at 6.3 percent: a relatively small gain but it was a year and a half after the recession's end before the employment situation started to improve consistently.

Historically, the unemployment rate has peaked, more often than not, fairly close to the recession's end. It can hardly be considered a lagging indicator. But what does this imply for the current recession?

Although statistically there is no reason to believe the employment situation will continue to deteriorate after the current recession ends, there is a reason to believe it will. Productivity gains in our economy mean fewer of us are employed providing what we would consider the necessities of life. During a recession most of us substantially reduce our consumption of the extras and keep the purchase of the essentials to a minimum. This leads to a lower Gross Domestic Product and a net loss of jobs.

As the economy improves we start to increase our demand of the necessities, but we are slower to increase our purchases of the non-essentials. Only after we are sure the economy has bottomed and we start to feel secure once again in our jobs do we, as a nation, begin to ramp up our demand for the extras. When you factor in the volume of goods we currently import that we used to manufacture onshore, it is easy to see why employment is slower to increase after the downturn ends than it was in earlier recessions. We simply buy less of the goods and services we produce until well after the recession bottoms.

You can see current charts of the unemployment rate, the percent change in non-farm employment and the employed/unemployed ratio at my website: http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com.

The author has been a student of economic theory and economic statistics for over thirty years. He is the editor and publisher of Van Schaik's Economic Outlook, a website forecasting business cycles in the U.S. economy. You can see the website at http://jpetervanschaik.googlepages.com

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