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Ton Coal

Coal: in 2008 industry profit growth 50%

Relevant statistics show that in 2008, the coal industry net profit attributable to parent company 609 billion, representing a 50% increase over the previous year 40.7 billion.

In 2008, the domestic steam coal price has experienced ups and downs. In the first three quarters, subject to the continuing rise in international oil prices, coal demand growth and consolidation of small coal mines and many other factors, coal prices to rise significantly. The fourth quarter, affected by the financial crisis, the world's major coal consumption slowing industry growth, the market demand slump in coal prices have declined substantially. In the second quarter of 2008, Qinhuangdao Datong excellent mix price from 650 yuan / ton rose to 1065 yuan / ton, setting a new high in recent years. The fourth quarter, coal prices fall, now back to early last year.

In 2008, China Shenhua operating income of 107.133 billion yuan, an increase of 30.5%, net profit of 26.588 billion yuan, an increase of 29.7%. However, results for the fourth quarter was only 0.234 yuan, a decline of 40.3%. China Shenhua's net profit growth below the industry average, mainly due to a long association accounting for as high as 77%, while in 2008 the price lower than the market price of coal a long association. For example, China Shenhua Coal price Association 2008 aged 336 yuan / ton, up 7.9% over the previous year. While the average domestic price of 3.58 yuan / ton.

Coal contract price is expected to rise 6% ~ 11%

Five Power Group has yet to sign a long-term coal contracts. To consider the cost of collection of policy space to maintain long-term contract coal was up 6 ~ 11% of the judgments.

Steam Coal: Price is expected to rotor down. In March, the National generating capacity of the chain up, power plants, ports stored coal continued to decline, but no large-scale resumption of coal production, so coal prices stabilized stabilized. Although there are signs of recovery in electricity generation, but considering the weather gets warmer, the north end of the heating, the national electricity down, rain increased and hydropower production resumes, and coal thermal power generation capacity may be falling, so that coal prices will be impossible to sharply. We forecast 2009 thermal coal contracts may be edged in the range of 5% -10%, while the steam coal market, the fall in the range of 25% -30%.

The short-term supply is tight shutting down small mines

In the Land Department in March 2009 introduction of a "national moratorium on the admissibility of the new social funding applications for coal prospecting rights", the Shanxi Province in April re-introduction of a "cutting" initiative, adopted the "restructuring and revitalization of the coal industry in Shanxi Province Planning" will Shanxi's coal industry efforts to promote integration and merger and reorganization efforts. Current domestic coal investment has overheated in 2009, or to a serious oversupply situation. The ultimate impact of shutting down capacity of 215 million tons, outside traffic 134 million tons.

If you shut down a strong, theoretically, this reduction in capacity of more than 200 million tons of coal production and sales in 2009 just to achieve a basic balance. But this is not satisfactory: more than shut down in preparation for future integration, that capacity will not reduce the future, not only short-term release; and stimulate the growth of the industry profits are the "medicine" from: demand pick up, as well as After shutting down of assets to effectively integrate the release of capacity.

We determine for the first time at the end - "is expected at the end of" tug of war with the coal contract prices gradually clear as well as international long-established co-prices will soon appear in the second quarter. By then, the market price of coal will fall out of the year, "low." The second at the end - "performance at the end," is expected to occur in the third quarter.
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